Statistics: Covid & Vaccines

[Ronald Zeeman]

I use statistics to try and determine how Covid is effecting the population. I made an interesting observation today, Victoria day a long weekend showed a sudden drop on the range chart for Ontario. But no effect in Ontario's largest city Toronto, but a large drop in Peel region, interesting they both were considered hot areas. So I would have expected a drop in Toronto due to greater vaccines. This did not happen it appears getting vaccinated is not the important factor but rather whom gets vaccinated.

 

[Ronald Zeeman]

Here's the actual files

 

[Varzar]

For the reference of non-Canadians, Victoria Day long weekend was May 22-24th.

 

[Varzar]

Is there a specific date you're referring to for the "sudden drop" in Ontario case numbers?
Just scanning through the numbers and doing a few calculations in the drop over the 21st to 24th for each area it seems like they all declined by about 20% +/- 5%. With Ontario overall seeing the largest drop.
I'm not sure if that difference is significant enough to be meaningful of anything though. Or at least, the number of reasons for it could be very large.

Did Ontario vaccinate rural communities with less health care availability sooner than cities the way BC did?
We live in a small town in BC, and got our shots probably a couple months before equivalent age people living in Vancouver.

 

[Raggamuffin]

Incubation is up to 2 weeks. Was the drop on the long weekend or in the weeks after? Can't download the files as I'm at work unfortunately.

Ed

 

[Ronald Zeeman]

This is a statistically significant drop, other methods are not valid. Short of having a good background in statistics do not try to interpret these result and read stuff into them that is not there. The biggest mistake most people is think a system has a linear component when it is not really there.

 

[Gerald Wilgus]

The pattern is not surprising, as so much depends on the age cohort being vaccinated and cluster infection. Plus, the B.1.1.7 variant had an early foothold in Ontario, infecting a young cohort, which, if behavior in the US is indicative, were more reckless indoors. Outdoors, not so much, with such an aerosol virus, outdoor transmission is only about 0.01% of cases.

I have the popcorn out to watch the progress of the Epsilon Variant which escapes immunity from the mRNA vaccines. This is bad news, especially as it creates a structural change in the ACE binding domain.
Epsilon variant mutations contribute to COVID immune evasion

It is important to understand that variant generation is driven by the unvaccinated because an effect of vaccine immunity is that breakthrough infection is characterized by a lower genetic diversity of the resulting virus.
COVID-19 vaccines dampen genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2: Unvaccinated patients exhibit more antigenic mutational variance

 

[Ronald Zeeman]

I'm expecting the unvaccinated to infect each other in the next few week as we go to stage 3 should show up as a blip on the numbers. I said from the beginning covid has a genetic component the results so far support this. only a proportion of the population is at risk of getting sick which is what is causing much of the confusion. I KNOW a lot more tha I am stating here. back ground in chemical engineering, micro biology and statistics. was aware at the beginning this virus was airborne. most virus experts do not have knowledge of chemical engineering

 

[Varzar]

Short of having a good background in statistics do not try to interpret these result and read stuff into them that is not there.

I KNOW a lot more tha I am stating here. back ground in chemical engineering, micro biology and statistics. was aware at the beginning this virus was airborne. most virus experts do not have knowledge of chemical engineering

So my problem with these posts is I do not have a background in statistics.
I find your posts interesting, but if you know more but are not going to explain it, then you're just leaving me (and probably most people on here) with only their own interpretation of the raw data you are posting. But then you tell us not to try to interpret the data cause we don't know statistics.

Are you only intending to post this data for the few people here that have a background in statistics? If so, I guess I'll ignore your posts despite them seeming to be quite interesting. If you want to target a more general audience though, I'd suggest maybe you share more of that knowledge you've got on the subject so we can understand what you're sharing better.

I would very much like to understand what you're sharing in more detail.

 

[Ronald Zeeman]

I had a stroke not capable of writing a book I have issues typing, the risk for Covid is not spread equally across the population. I am a visual thinker what is obvious to me is difficult to explain to other none visual thinkers. Toronto and Peel region both had a large drive to vaccinate as they were so called hot areas. The effect in Peel was much more statistically significant than in Toronto where the extra vaccine had a much lesser effect. Targeted vaccines for the more suitable people would make more sense. If you are genetically northern European you have a 20% chance of getting Covid, South Asian 80% chance, keep in mind. If African decent you have many of the genes of northern European, legacy of slavery, blood type is a crude indicator, A and AB not good, chance of getting sick is high.

 

[Varzar]

I HAD A stroke not capable of writing a book issues typing

Ahh, alright. Well, that's unfortunate.
Don't know how your speech is after the stroke, but maybe a speech-to-text program would help you minimize typing.

Otherwise, I guess I'll just draw my own conclusions from the limited statistical knowledge I've got.

 

[watersprite]

HAD A stroke not capable of writing a book issues typing

Very sorry about that.

I too am very interested. I left Aus just a month or so before Covid got set loose in Sydney. As of yesterday they have over a 1000 cases and it looks like it’s going to spread into the regional countryside.
They have hindsight in that they should’ve bought vaccines rather than stubbornly insisting on waiting and deveoping their own.

In any case, as soon as I got home I got my (Pfizer) vaccination.
Edited to add:
I hope that being fit & keeping blood sugar stable is enough to keep me safe from this virus.
I live literally down the street from a lab that has been instrumental in photographing it, studying it and testing the vaccine(s). Can’t thank the scientists enough.

 

[Ronald Zeeman]

Now you understand why I have issues dealing with others who do not think visually, why I'm on this forum. My wife and I have a painting of a sailing ship imagine trying to describe this painting in words to a blind person, that has been my life, everybody is blind. I suspect even among the fellow visual thinkers on this site I may be exceptional Test once years ago told my ability was equal to trained person at a PHD level after years of learning and training the I have naturally. The one word a psychologist who tested me said was incredible.

 

[Varzar]

Now you understand why I have issues dealing with others who do not think visually, why I'm on this forum. My wife and I have a painting of a sailing ship imagine trying to describe this painting in words to a blind person, that has been my life, everybody is blind.

Oh, I know the feeling. I imagine many here do.

 

[Ronald Zeeman]

The only people I know of that have a ability of the magnitude I have were Einstein and Tesla, there are probably more. A big motor hooked up to nothing is still a big motor. I think the number is one out of 57,000 people have this, lets do a quick calculation 1/57,000*1/100,000*5/100=8 people per billion = Einstein mystery solved.
1/57,000 -- think visually
1/100,000 -- IQ 160+
5/100 -- INTP personality type

Ron = 2 people per million
1/57,000 - visual thinker
2/100 -- IQ 130
5/100 -- INTP

 

[Judge]

Oh, I know the feeling. I imagine many here do.

LOL. Absolutely. Reminds me of my days as a website designer, attempting to explain in words what my mind was seeing in real time. With most everyone around me not getting it, opting instead for me to draft a comp.

One of those few earlier times where I stopped to ponder that not everyone's thought processes may be alike. Little did I know then....what I know now.

 

[Ronald Zeeman]

My simple calculation shows how quickly you can convert a unique skill some education into exclusive territory.

 

[Suzanne]

I was against being vaccinated. Hate the idea of poison in my body and hate the idea of how quick these vaccines came about and not having the proper protocol attached, however, where I am, which is France ( and am not French), Macron ( French president) has made it, that it is wiser to get vaccinated and that includes everyone, and there is absolutely no exception.

If not vaccinated by end of next month, each time going out, must have a new negative covid test and currently they are free, but will be not free.

I have my first jab 9th of next month and can't wait for it to be over and just hope I do not get a bad reaction, if anything.

I do think they are dangerous in truth, because it gives people a false belief and therefore, many will just ignore what one should still do and cause problems.

I mean, it is suggested we will have another lockdown in the autumn, despite the rise of vaccinated ones.

 

[Judge]

That's one of Nevada's problems. That the so-called "rise" of those vaccinated has stalled out at 39%. And the Delta strain is infecting non-vaccinated people at a much faster rate now. Where 39% just isn't enough for the non-vaccinated to benefit from those who chose to be vaccinated.

While California has opted to make everyone wear masks again, I don't think it or another lockdown will be enough either. It seems the new virus strains are overtaking those who choose to sit on the fence. A consideration that we didn't have at the end of last year as vaccines began to roll out to the public.

 

[Magna]

I'm hoping I can track the progress to get more accurate data coming out of the UK. I read something today that 47% of new Covid infections are from...people who have been vaccinated. That figure is misleading, however, because it apparently includes people who have only had the first jab and therefore have not yet gotten both jabs and had the time elapse to be considered fully vaccinated. Data should come out though to determine how many of those 47% were truly fully vaccinated.

How many here think that the only effective solution is that every human above age 12 on the planet be vaccinated with the new mRNA vaccines and forcibly so if need be? I should start a poll. I've been curious about this.