The Tesla network

[Myrtonos]

I have been following two Tesla vehicles under development, the cybercab and the robovan, both of which are intended to operate on a ridehailing service called the Tesla network. A big reason for building public transit is that it allows each operator to move more people at a time than they could with a more individual vehicle, like a car or a van. This also encourages developers to maximize the amount of homes and businesses within walking distance of public transportation. In any case, this means getting on with a whole lot of other people and public transport also does not start where you want it to start or end where you want it to end and does not go all the time.
Systems and routes with operators use larger vehicles to move more people and this means that a lot of services that can be supported are at low frequencies.

But with ride-hailing service for unstaffed vehicles, smaller vehicles at higher frequencies could make financial and economic sense. Now I know cybercabs won't follow fixed routes or timetables, but you guys know what I mean, don't you? Robovans might fall between taxicabs and buses, just as jitneys do, and might operate on semi-fixed rather than fixed routes.

Also, the densities that make turn-up-and-go systems with operators (that is larger vehicles at turn-up-and-go frequencies) economical come at the expense of privacy.
With the technology to do without drivers aboard, not as much density is needed to justify a turn-up-and-go system. Now, it is often said families with children need cars and need to live in suburbia. That is because suburbia is better for sheltering toddlers, and let us face it, cars are better for sheltering toddlers than public or active transport. However, the lack of (adequate) transit in those areas currently inhibits the growth and independence of children past toddler stage.

Consider this:
A robovan every 5 minutes can move about as many people as a standard route bus every 15 minutes and this is without tripling the crewing requirements. And then there is the cybercab for where there are not enough journeys to serve for such a frequent robovan service.

 

[Neonatal RRT]

I've been following this, as well. We will see how this is adopted, any problems that pop up, etc. in June. Austin, TX will be one of the pilot cities. The one thing we have experienced already is that when problems do pop up, it's an over-the-air software update to fix the problem. My Teslas both drive noticeably better than they did 6 months to a year ago.

Uber drivers with Teslas with FSD software have been operating for years now, but it hasn't been until this latest software edition that things could be considered "autonomous" with real world AI decision-making. Tesla recently released it in beta version in China recently and the test drivers and videos being posted are quite impressive, especially the ones on unpaved mountain roads and construction sites.

The amount of compute is expanding rapidly and the learning is on an exponential curve. Issues and talking points that the media wanted to report on 4 months ago, might as well be ancient history the way the software is evolving.

We will see, but for those who live in suburban and urban areas, this idea of simply "calling for a car" will be a game changer for many. No need for garages, parking lots, or even owning a vehicle. That is, of course, if the price point is attractive for lower income folks, which is their goal. They want to enhance mobility for everyone. Green areas can open up. Fewer vehicles on the road. Existing parking structures can be transformed into landing pads for autonomous, electric air taxis (EVTOLs) Archer | Electric Air Taxis. The future seems pretty bright.

 

[Myrtonos]

At the moment, higher densities and transit oriented development make it easier to get around without a driver's licence. But the Tesla network will make it easier to get around less densely populated areas without a driver's licence.

 

[Ronald Zeeman]

Tesla not popular now, they burnt bridges.

 

[Myrtonos]

While Tesla is not popular, the fact is that self-driving technology does allow more use of car-size and van-sized vehicles in areas where transit that can be supported is not at turn-up-and-go frequencies.
In those areas (which includes much of Switzerland, much of Scandinavia and even parts of Japan), the low frequencies, as opposed to running smaller vehicles more frequently, allows each operator to move more people at a time. Traditionally it has also allowed each engine and transmission to move more people at a time, but electric vehicles are lower maintenance, again helping justify the economics of running smaller vehicles more frequently, possibly over semi-fixed rather than fixed routes.

More frequent services can be supported without what is known in planning circles as transit-oriented development, and there is no need for pulse scheduling, like in Switzerland, where services at low frequencies are timed to meet at interchanges.

I wonder about deploying this technology in Elon Musk's home country, South Africa. Could Cape Town and Johannesburg be good pilot cities?

 

[Neonatal RRT]

While Tesla is not popular, the fact is that self-driving technology does allow more use of car-size and van-sized vehicles in areas where transit that can be supported is not at turn-up-and-go frequencies.
In those areas (which includes much of Switzerland, much of Scandinavia and even parts of Japan), the low frequencies, as opposed to running smaller vehicles more frequently, allows each operator to move more people at a time. Traditionally it has also allowed each engine and transmission to move more people at a time, but electric vehicles are lower maintenance, again helping justify the economics of running smaller vehicles more frequently, possibly over semi-fixed rather than fixed routes.

More frequent services can be supported without what is known in planning circles as transit-oriented development, and there is no need for pulse scheduling, like in Switzerland, where services at low frequencies are timed to meet at interchanges.

I wonder about deploying this technology in Elon Musk's home country, South Africa. Could Cape Town and Johannesburg be good pilot cities?

The economics will be a function of scale. The more it is adopted; the cost curves will bring public transportation down significantly less than it currently is. Furthermore, significantly fewer vehicles on the road and in parking lots and structures. If you own a vehicle and use it for daily transportation, 90+% of the day, it is parked. With a robotaxi network, these vehicles have only the downtime to recharge but are moving people that 90% of the day. It's a far more efficient transportation model. This idea of owning a personal vehicle, for many in urban and suburban areas will be a thing of the past. How much of our income will be opened up when we aren't tied to auto loans, insurance, maintenance, and fuel costs? Less traffic congestion. Less air pollution. More green spaces. I think this is going to be good.

 

[Myrtonos]

I wonder if mass transit (which allows each operator to move more people at a time than with a more individual vehicle) will also be a thing of the past for many, given that the self driving technology helps justify the economics of smaller vehicles at higher frequencies.
Most transit relies on the taxpayer, and some relies on cross-subsidization, so how much of our income would be opened up if we aren't tied to tax funding the transit?

 

[Neonatal RRT]

I wonder if mass transit (which allows each operator to move more people at a time than with a more individual vehicle) will also be a thing of the past for many, given that the self driving technology helps justify the economics of smaller vehicles at higher frequencies.
Most transit relies on the taxpayer, and some relies on cross-subsidization, so how much of our income would be opened up if we aren't tied to tax funding the transit?

It depends upon the market, but especially in the US where we currently have a limited mass transit system, the vast majority of people do not want to wait for a commuter train or bus, they just want to get moving right now. I am thinking, as you are here, that the robotaxi network will likely, if scaled correctly, gain a lot more acceptance in the urban centers of the US much faster than in say, urban centers in Europe and the UK, where mass transit is more the norm and is quite efficient. In the US, you can wait for an hour or so, for a ride on a bus that is less than 20% full, and they have limited hours of operation. It's not user-friendly for the majority of people who just want to get up and go. The robotaxi network, once it reaches the proper scale, will be very user-friendly for the impatient, in a rush, sort of person.

Taxes. Another interesting perspective. How much of our local taxes go towards mass transit? Depends upon the market. How much do we spend in taxes every time we fuel up or charge our vehicles? What happens when significantly fewer people are doing that? Would these funds need to be reappropriated towards and into the robotaxi network? Roads still need to be maintained, although, theoretically, with fewer vehicles on the road, the roads may have a longer life before needing refinishing, cutting costs overall. Would we invest in new wireless charging roadways? Pay by the mi/km. It would significantly lower the need for physical charging stations and the associated downtime.

More of a proof of concept: https://www.michigan.gov/mdot/travel/mobility/initiatives/wireless-charging-roadway

 

[Myrtonos]

Another thing to consider is that the North America, Canada too, is generally lower density that Europe (British Isles as well as the continent) and this lowers the frequency of a lot of services that could be supported even with maximum mode share, namely services where each operator is moving more people at a time than they could with a more individual vehicle. But even in Europe and Japan, some services that can be supported are less frequent, like what you describe for the U.S.A.
I wonder how much acceptance the robotaxi concept would this would gain in South Africa and how quickly.

The forthcoming Tesla network will essentially be a turnkey ridehailing service:
That means buying a fleet of vehicles (such as cybertaxis and robovans), installing some software and setting some parameters, activating it and it operates at a turn-up-and-go frequency (be it over fixed or semi-fixed routes) or on demand, with no need to train or licence drivers and no need for extensive timetable integration like in Switzerland.

 

[Gerontius]

I can't say I trust it.

 

[MildredHubble]

Mass Transit is a solved problem, its just under funded and cities all over the world have prioritized personal vehicles over public options like trains, trams and buses. This was entirely to help car manufacturers make a lot of money in the past.

I think Tesla has next to zero chance of creating anything more than a novelty, and probably a dangerous novelty if their automated driving to date is any indication. Tesla is basically "uninventing" the taxi cab and bus. They will achieve nothing other than making more traffic to increase congestion in towns and cities.

I certainly wouldn't set foot in one of Tesla's shiny death traps

 

[Outdated]

Mass Transit is a solved problem, its just under funded and cities all over the world have prioritized personal vehicles over public options like trains, trams and buses.

Here our major cities have been leaning back the other way in the last few decades and we have good cheap and reliable public transport in all of the major cities. Outside of them though you're knackered without a car.

 

[Dagan]

I wish the US had the kind of train transit that EU has. I'm not just saying that as a Spectrumite, haha (trains!!!). I would like better options to travel places instead of driving while anxiously avoiding the lunatics on the road. I could be who more comfortably looks out the window and such. Too often, I only enjoy myself when I'm at the beginning or ending destination. I rarely ever enjoy the trip because I usually have to drive.

 

[MildredHubble]

Here our major cities have been leaning back the other way in the last few decades and we have good cheap and reliable public transport in all of the major cities. Outside of them though you're knackered without a car.

The UK is starting to make public transport a more viable option too now. Caps have been placed on bus fares for example so you can pretty much go wherever you want and you will never pay more than £3 per route. So if you are determined you could probably travel across the country for around £9.

The real issue is that most of pur supermarkets moved to retail parks outside of towns in the 90s and this makes it difficult to shop for groceries unless you have a car. Even in towns where there are smaller "supermarkets" its still difficult as you might have to drag shopping for a mile or so to catch a bus. At least things seem to be improving.

I tend to see the car as the thing I use only when walking is out of the question.

I think Teslas concept of public transport is basically dead on arrival. The Robovan is basically a posh dentist waiting room on wheels that can only seat around 14 people without any of them being in a wheel chair. The Cybercab or whatever its called, is dangerous as it will apparently have no accessible controls, will use inferior scanning technology (cameras only) and will happily lock you inside if the power fails.

A modern double decker bus will seat around 60 people in one go. Many of them are electric or at least hybrid now. Its a much better and tried and tested solution.

Personally, I'd like to see trams make a return. They have them in Switzerland and whizzing round from one end of Basel to the other is so simple and easy. They run maybe every 3-5 minutes and they are comfortable and clean.

 

[Myrtonos]

Mass Transit is a solved problem, its just under funded and cities all over the world have prioritized personal vehicles over public options like trains, trams and buses.

I am not sure what you mean.

Lots of people here are missing a key point. That point is that a lot of the mass transit services that can be supported are not at, say 3-5 minute frequencies. If say they are going to have automated vehicles every 9-15 minutes, why not have smaller vehicles every 3-5 minutes?

I wish the US had the kind of train transit that EU has.

But the U.S.A and Canada do not have, for most part, the densities that E.U has.

A modern double decker bus will seat around 60 people in one go. Many of them are electric or at least hybrid now. Its a much better and tried and tested solution.

Seating more people in one go is exactly what allows each operator to move more people at a time than they could with a more individual vehicle. The cost of hiring an operator and the need for one aboard each vehicle is exactly why some services that can be supported are at lower frequencies than every 5 minutes. Switzerland, in fact, has a lot of such services and that, combined with the need for all those transfers, mean they need a lot of timed connections.

Lots of people say that transit in cities like Basel is wonderful and they have good mode share, and this is indeed with higher frequencies and each operator moving more people at a time than they could with more individual vehicles, like cars and vans. Of course they do, most European cities are pre-automotive, and motoring is more difficult. A lot of people cannot park their cars at home, they need to go and find a place to park it. They also have a lot of really narrow streets where two cars will not fit side-by-side and cars may park on the sidewalks. See this relevant video by German Girl in America, in particular this chapter, especially what it says about streets. Having transit vehicles that spend less time parked and more time moving people is just easier and due to densities, larger vehicles at quite high frequencies are justified.
Additionally, countries like Switzerland have large supplies of hydroelectric power, and so cheap electricity, saving their trolleybuses and trams from abandonment and indeed favoring rail over road, specifically electric rail.
Apart from trolleybuses and trolleytrucks, motorized road transport is largely a product of fossil fuels and in some countries, including Switzerland, fossil oil has to be imported, which also makes private motoring more difficult (though in a different way) or at least did until recently.

Anyway, those pre-automotive cities also don't have nearly as many spaces to shelter toddlers, and if you don't think that is a problem, compare the fertility rates of wealthy European countries with less densely populated developed countries and areas. Why else do you think families with children need cars and need to live in suburbia?
Also, residents of those European cities do not get as much privacy and there are often rules for apartment dwellers like no noise after 10:00pm and rules about when mowing lawns is permitted, and when airing of bedding from windows is permitted. More space around people like in North America or Australia simply means more privacy and no need for rules like those.

@MildredHubble I don't understand why you are so critical of Tesla's concept. The concept at hand, whether or not from Tesla, is smaller vehicles at higher frequencies and lowering the densities needed to justify a turn-up-and-go system.

 

[Neonatal RRT]

1. Time will tell. Let's give this about 5 years to work out the "bugs" before coming to an opinion.
2. Despite what all the corporate paid media, anti-Tesla FUD, would love people to believe, statistically, per miles driven and in crash tests, they are the safest vehicles out on the road. If it makes the news cycle, it's because it's a rare event. Thousands of vehicles every day are in accidents and fires, but it's just a "vehicle". The same happens with a Tesla, it's immediately, a "Tesla accident", "Tesla fire", or "Tesla driver". That's propaganda, plain and simple. Evidently, it's working.
3. Many companies are working on autonomy. That train has left the station. You aren't stopping it. Statistically, it's already more safe than human drivers, and getting better on an exponential curve. The car can see 360* and has reaction times orders of magnitude faster than humans. In general, it's humans that cannot be trusted behind the wheel.

 

[Outdated]

1. Time will tell. Let's give this about 5 years to work out the "bugs" before coming to an opinion.

That's the best advice anyone can give about new technology and new ideas.

I can still remember back in the heady days of DOS when the mouse got invented, it caused panic amongst computer techs. "People will be able to drag and drop files by accident and crash their systems. Remember, the first point and click interface was developed by Smith & Wesson."

 

[Outdated]

The UK is starting to make public transport a more viable option too now. Caps have been placed on bus fares for example so you can pretty much go wherever you want and you will never pay more than £3 per route. So if you are determined you could probably travel across the country for around £9.

Not sure how well this would work in the UK because of your limited space, but here the larger shopping centres are also public transport hubs, a place where many different bus routes all come together and then flow out again. This is an essential service for pensioners and seniors, and now I just turned 60 I've got a Seniors Card and I get public transport for free. In Adelaide there's no "zones" for the public transport, a standard ticket lasts for 2 hours regardless of how far you travel. For many this means going to the shops and back on one ticket.

Fares

And this is the satellite view of my closest shopping centre's bus interchange, holding the mouse over the different bus stops gives you the different route numbers and you can click on them to get timetables etc.

Google Maps

The real issue is that most of pur supermarkets moved to retail parks outside of towns in the 90s and this makes it difficult to shop for groceries unless you have a car. Even in towns where there are smaller "supermarkets" its still difficult as you might have to drag shopping for a mile or so to catch a bus. At least things seem to be improving.

Unfortunately most of your streets were laid out back in the day when they had to be wide enough for two blokes pushing hand carts. Not wide enough for buses as well as other traffic. By comparison our suburban back streets are wider than many of your B roads and our B roads are wider than many of your highways.

Food for thought though.