From a neurotypical's perspective

[Ronald Zeeman]

See Gegor Mendel, it is their genes that matter. Also Barbara Mcclintock findings.

 

[Hypnalis]

Or like when it first started, the micro experts and doctors swore it could not be airborne, while the engineers said it was, Who was proven correct.

Not the ones where I live. The "error" was that they said infection was via droplets, not an aerosol (which stays in the air far longer).

This may have been a necessary untruth.

As it panned out, a lot of people refused to accept that the mask is to avoid infecting others, so the number of new infections falls low enough that it dies out. Ditto the effect of the vaccine (which had an acceptable rate of negative side-effects given the circumstances).
Statistically it's enough that infected people infect (on average) less than one other person (so e.g. 10 infected people together infect only 8 others). In that case, the disease will fade rather than spread.

They needed enough people to do as they were asked/instructed to reduce the death rate. Where enough people didn't act to help the entire population by helping to reducing the infection rate, more people died.

In the 21st century, a huge proportion of people don't care enough about others to act in a way that serves the population as a whole. But they have been conditioned to accept exaggerated reports on the risk of potentially negative personal outcomes.

Such foolish behavior is just asking to be told a carefully curated version of the truth for the common good.

In a few countries the facts were made available, and the majority of the population did what was needed. This included where I live.
The result here, as analyzed afterwards, was relatively low "excess deaths", despite some calculated risks being taken by the authorities.

 

[Hypnalis]

Apparently, we reed statistical data differently.

I wasn't guessing. There's no alternatively way to read the data.

 

[Ronald Zeeman]

I did a calculation based on the deathrate here in Ontario used it for China got 90 million deaths I think it was much higher, have found out since Neanderthals also crossbreed with Denisovans so the death rate was much higher may be hundreds of millions, and currently more are passing as covid is not over, 1.4 billion could have been halved. Too much lying. Have we gone through the biggest population reduction in history. All I know my statistics are accurate. and the data is accurate Our premiers was anal about the data collection No playing politics with truth. What is happening in China show as how bad it could be with a vaccine that does not work.

 

[Misty Avich]

Straight after the pandemic the world population reached 8 billion for the first time in human history.

 

[Ronald Zeeman]

Expect it to half in the next 20 years will not be here to see it but my granddaughter will.

 

[Outsider]

I wasn't guessing. There's no alternatively way to read the data.

I have explained how I read the data. You implied that I have read the data incorrectly. but asserting something is not good enough unless you say what is wrong with my interpretation of data.
To repeat myself -- I said that the 20% autism rate in the families with autistic parents is not enough to conclude that autism is hereditary. I also noted that only when autism rate in autistic families is above 95% then it is safe to assume that autism is hereditary. Did I misinterpret the principles of mathematical statistics? If so, please tell me how my interpretation contradicts the notions of mathematical statistics.
I haven't seen so far how you interpret the data rather than saying that there is no alternative way to read it. To start with, what kind of data you're referring to? So far I haven't seen any.
On the other hand, I have quoted an article published in a peer-reviewed magazine showing that mercury is responsible for autism. Do you think that there is something wrong with the article?
There were several successful lawsuits in US against chemical companies, who dumped mercury-containing materials into the rivers and soil. These materials have caused several conditions including autism. One of the most notorious cases was the one of the Port Refining Site in the state of New York. Do you think that these lawsuits are bogus? The families who initiated them don't think so.
My guess is that the lawyers representing these chemical companies tried to convince the jury that autism is hereditary but to no avail. Lawsuits are based on science in the vast majority of cases; otherwise, they have no chance of being successful.

 

[Misty Avich]

Expect it to half in the next 20 years will not be here to see it but my granddaughter will.

It'll take about a million years for the population in the UK to decrease, there's like a trillion people here already.

 

[vergil96]

I'm not sure if epidemiology works the way you assume. Heritability is much more complex than simple yes-no. There are many genes responsible for each genetic condition. Therefore you can have in that very same family people who are diagnosed with ASD and those who have similar traints, but arsn't negatively affected. Same goes for other disorders.

 

[Hypnalis]

To repeat myself -- I said that the 20% autism rate in the families with autistic parents is not enough to conclude that autism is hereditary. I also noted that only when autism rate in autistic families is above 95% then it is safe to assume that autism is hereditary. Did I misinterpret the principles of mathematical statistics?

Yes, you did.

If so, please tell me how my interpretation contradicts the notions of mathematical statistics.

No.

I said something like: "The techniques are well established, and work well". That doesn't mean they're simple.
You need to learn the basics first.

Something you might be able to work with directly:

With a sufficiently large set of measurements of the frequency of ASD in families covering at least two generations per family, plus some non-trivial math, you can estimate the hereditability of ASD.
Naturally the results will be better with more families, more generations, better precision and coverage for diagnosing ASD, and various other factors. But there are ways to control for such things to make sure the results are useful.

The data will include families where there are:
1. ASD ancestry, but the current generation has no descendants with ASD
2. ASD ancestry, and the current generation has descendants with ASD (i.e. many more than case (3))
3. Non-ASD ancestry with one (or a few) descendants with ASD
4. Non-ASD ancestry with no descendants with ASD

There's more room for "slicing and dicing" the data OFC, but those four are good for the moment.

An example of looking closer: families with one ASD parent with ASD ancestors + one non-ASD parent with no ASD ancestors should show a distinct statistic pattern which can be used to improve the accuracy of the "heritability" estimates.

So:

A. The facts (i.e. estimating hereditability) are in the proportions of the (many) cases like that
B. An example of case (3) doesn't prove that was a specific environmental cause, but doesn't exclude it. It could also be random.
It's necessary to "control" for these (including e.g. the chance of environmental factors playing a part in case (2)).
Note that there are statistical tests for randomness, so 3's can be analyzed in a structured way.
C. On aggregate, Case 2 will also include many non-ASD children. That frequency is also statistically useful in getting a best final estimate.

"Control" in this sense is to gather data about possible environmental factors (which is not always easy) and map them onto the ASD statistics. The math for this is harder than the math for the original analysis where the only external factor is assumed to be randomness.

That work has been done too, so the controls aren't bad. It's known that ASD is (partly) affected by environment factors. The math for this is also reliable, and goes back a long way.

An example of how this shows up is "clustering" of positive data (ASD cases) by location that doesn't match the data set as a whole. The details aren't simple, but the methods are used quite often.

(As an aside: clustering by location is also a solid indicator of "social contagion". I can imagine it becoming a talking point in the next few years.)

 

[Outsider]

@Hypnalis

You proposed the method of dividing subjects of study in 4 groups but didn’t present the analysis itself. Instead you outlined the difficulties associated with it without suggesting how to deal with them. Luckily, somebody did the required analysis, and that person is not me. I don’t know if they divided the subjects into groups the way you did, but it doesn’t matter.

This is the current situation in Europe – the Health Ministries of almost all European countries banned the use of Thimerosal. Thimerosal is a biochemical component containing mercury as one of its components, as its chemical formula shows. By itself Thimerosal is harmless because it contains mercury in a bound state. Under atmospheric conditions Thimerosal’s half-life is about 50 days, however, when it gets into the human body for the reasons that are not completely understood, it decomposes in less than 5 days releasing mercury into the organism.

Before the ban Thimerosal was used to prolong the expiration date of MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) vaccines. Apparently, the irrefutable evidence shows a link between mercury and autism.

Mercury is not the only substance that has links to autism. Other possible causes are pesticides (they are currently used in all industrial countries), heavy metals and endocrine disruptors (there are many of them, the most well-known are flame retardants). My guess that there are lawsuits against companies that produce this unhealthy stuff and dump it down the stream, but I haven’t taken a close look at the matter.

Before 2021 I used to think that autism is a hereditary condition. But after I familiarized myself with the severe side effects caused by COVID vaccines and started examining the whole field of vaccination. Currently there are no observed links between the COVID vaccines and autism, but I found plenty other evidence that convinced me that autism is not a hereditary condition in general.

To be fair, there is a small number of autistic conditions that are caused by identifiable gene mutations, they are Fragile X syndrome, Rett Syndrome and 22q11.2 Deletion Syndrome. But these conditions affect less than 1% of autistic individuals.

 

[Hypnalis]

I told you I'm not going to teach you the basics of analyzing statistics. It takes too much time.
Then I tried to provide a perspective that might help you get started, but it didn't help.

That's it for me.

 

[Mary Terry]

@Hypnalis

You proposed the method of dividing subjects of study in 4 groups but didn’t present the analysis itself. Instead you outlined the difficulties associated with it without suggesting how to deal with them. Luckily, somebody did the required analysis, and that person is not me. I don’t know if they divided the subjects into groups the way you did, but it doesn’t matter.

This is the current situation in Europe – the Health Ministries of almost all European countries banned the use of Thimerosal. Thimerosal is a biochemical component containing mercury as one of its components, as its chemical formula shows. By itself Thimerosal is harmless because it contains mercury in a bound state. Under atmospheric conditions Thimerosal’s half-life is about 50 days, however, when it gets into the human body for the reasons that are not completely understood, it decomposes in less than 5 days releasing mercury into the organism.

Before the ban Thimerosal was used to prolong the expiration date of MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) vaccines. Apparently, the irrefutable evidence shows a link between mercury and autism.

Mercury is not the only substance that has links to autism. Other possible causes are pesticides (they are currently used in all industrial countries), heavy metals and endocrine disruptors (there are many of them, the most well-known are flame retardants). My guess that there are lawsuits against companies that produce this unhealthy stuff and dump it down the stream, but I haven’t taken a close look at the matter.

Before 2021 I used to think that autism is a hereditary condition. But after I familiarized myself with the severe side effects caused by COVID vaccines and started examining the whole field of vaccination. Currently there are no observed links between the COVID vaccines and autism, but I found plenty other evidence that convinced me that autism is not a hereditary condition in general.

To be fair, there is a small number of autistic conditions that are caused by identifiable gene mutations, they are Fragile X syndrome, Rett Syndrome and 22q11.2 Deletion Syndrome. But these conditions affect less than 1% of autistic individuals.

You're starting to feel like a troll to me. You are pushing totally debunked theories about autism. I bet you think cod liver oil will prevent and cure measles, too.

Please do not respond to me. I'm not going to fall into your rabbit hole.

 

[tree]

www.autismforums.com/threads/please-do-not-discuss-vaccine-asd-connection-controversy-on-ac-autismforums.1272/