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Lots and lots and lots of autistic folk

RemyZee

RemyZee

Well-Known Member
I just read from a source that I have thought of as scientifically trustworthy that 1 out of 30 people are now being born autistic. Does that make sense? Seems like a whole lot of autistic people.
 
I haven't read the paper in question (is the primary source a research paper published by a reputable institution?), but with current knowledge of autism, and much more knowledge about it in the general population, that makes sense to me. I feel like I've met a lot more autistic people (especially undiagnosed women) than would be expected from the oft repeated "1/100" conventional wisdom.
 
Yes if you can give link it will help.

I've looked at stats on this quite a bit over the years, but the last time was several months ago. I thought at that time the biggest percentage officially reported anywhere was around 1 in 48 or there-a-bouts. I think South Korea and USA were some of the countries with highest reported incidence

Reporting varies of course in different countries, and worldwide average was estimated at 1 in 100.

The stats have shown a steady increase for decades now so 1 in 30 doesn't surprise me. The big question is is the increase actual increase or increase in reporting. My guess is it's both.
 
Yes. The ratio of NDs to NTs has changed a lot. (used to be 1 in 68) No surprise to me. Yet so many of us remained unaccounted for given no formal diagnosis.

"About 1 in 36 children has been identified with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) according to estimates from CDC's Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network."

Data and Statistics on Autism Spectrum Disorder
 
Late 2010s data that I have (sources listed in posts referenced below) for the US and Canada nationally is around 1:40.

V

Post in thread 'I have this weird obsession'

I think that as there's more awareness, diagnosis, and access to diagnoses, we'll see a prevalence rate of about 2.5% or so overall, as we are already seeing in some jurisdictions with active screening of children. But there are still many who for various reasons will "slip through" and might only become aware of the possibility of being on the spectrum through chance as an adult, if they do.

According to the Public Health Agency of Canada (Ofner et al., 2018), the combined prevalence among children and youth aged 5-17 in Canada, in the year 2015, is 1 in 42 among males, 1 in 165...
Click to expand...
  • Useful

V

Post in thread 'Aspie/Schizophrenic/ADHD/Mensan - Quadruple cocktail of doom'

Welcome!

And to throw in some stats on prevalence rates among children in the US

ADHD (2016-2019): 1:10
ASD (2018): 1:44
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Tired said:
If there will be more NDs than NTs, does it mean that I'll be named ND, and you'll become NT? 🤔
Click to expand...

Idk. If the increase is real I doubt anyone can predict the future course it will take. Too many variables. Additionally I haven't seen any evidence it is evolutionary. If it happens i think it will be more like a whoopsie.

;)
 
Tom said:
Yes if you can give link it will help.

I've looked at stats on this quite a bit over the years, but the last time was several months ago. I thought at that time the biggest percentage officially reported anywhere was around 1 in 48 or there-a-bouts. I think South Korea and USA were some of the countries with highest reported incidence

Reporting varies of course in different countries, and worldwide average was estimated at 1 in 100.

The stats have shown a steady increase for decades now so 1 in 30 doesn't surprise me. The big question is is the increase actual increase or increase in reporting. My guess is it's both.
Click to expand...
There’s an interesting systematic review and meta-analysis published in 2022:

The global prevalence of autism spectrum disorder: a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis

According to their results, “longitudinal analysis of the data of the same geographical region over the years confirmed an increase in the prevalence of ASD. For example, Randall et al. performed a longitudinal study on children in Australia in 2016 and estimated the prevalence of ASD as 14.1/1000 in 2005–2006 and 25.2/1000 in 2010–2011, both of which were higher compared to a previously reported estimate (3.92/1000). In the most recent study in Australia in 2020, the prevalence of ASD was reported to be 43.6/1000.”

The authors were not able to conclude whether the increase in prevalence observed was real, or just due to altered diagnostic criteria and tools, leading to earlier and more diagnoses of ASD patients.
 
Theres increasing geriatric pregnancies in developed world which could account for some of the increase. Possibly environmental pollution too. Also theres more autism awareness which could mean more diagnosis'.
 
There is also the issue that what constitutes an autism diagnosis is not the same as it was 30 years ago. It is more "generous" today. As the defintion becomes more inclusive, more are included.

For that matter, nobody (at least not in the US) was even looking 30 years ago. Now everyone is looking. The more you look for something, the more you find.

Sometimes, if you look for it hard enough, you can even find it where it isn't.
 
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