Predicting course in life journey

[Ronald Zeeman]

Life is about predicting the future as much as possible what I have learned. do not think linearly. curve linear thinking works better If you can guess the type of distribution
Gaussian. Poisson, or Lorenz curve, place control limits on it fix outliers at three sigma level.

 

[Neonatal RRT]

I still find it comical that most analysts of the stock market, when predicting the growth curve of a company, cost curves, or adoption of a new technology, still use a near linear model when it has, as far as I have witnessed, always been an exponential curve (more or less). Human brains just seem to have a difficult time thinking exponentially, it would appear.

 

[Kayla55]

And the butterfly effect.

 

[Ronald Zeeman]

The first think I saw with my covid statistics was it followed a Gausian, distribution in waves. So simple so obvious.
Combining by abilities to visualize and basic statistical knowledge really help.

 

[AprilR]

I sort of don't want to predict. The future looks too hopeless for me. I used to make plans and prepare for everything but it was useless.

 

[Marianna]

Life does seem to follow these natural curves, and sometimes you just have to roll with the ups and downs.

 

[Ronald Zeeman]

The trick is see where you are on the curve put control limits on it if an out of control condition happens adjust what you are doing. I wish I knew this when younger, now it is so obvious.

 

[George Newman]

Ronald. Good post. Thank you.

If you don’t mind, could you provide an example scenario where you have applied this mechanism in your life’s path and what the result was?

Many thanks, my friend.

 

[Ronald Zeeman]

I'm retired now use this technique, the how things actually work my brother gave me the idea saw a list of top Canadian CEO's, renumeration wondered if it I could predict statistically the outliers, and combine it with what he was doing. I was shocked that it worked did it two years, My brother not having a back ground in quality engineering did not see what I saw, Now that I am retired I can see it being used to make life decisions Find where you are on a curve If you are an outlier make a correction. When a friend made joke during covid being related to Neanderthals. I started plotting government statistics and found they had a normal distribution and every outlier could be explained. The big ones matched the hypothesis. To my surprise everything made sense. Now realize great technique to late to use on myself. excellent decision making method currently use it to see how my health is. Adjust the sigma level to see seriousness, currently using it to predict probability of serious illness. Two of my wife's friends were on inflection points like myself ended up in hospital. Must admit admit it surprised me when my brother passed away and I had a stroke statistics I had put together years ago sort of predicted it via probability.

 

[Ronald Zeeman]

I did a curve for CEO's actually considered giving a copy to my CEO so he could determine whether he was being over or under paid, got cold feet.

Also when I was working a manager had put together a simple list of daily shipments by weight of coil I noticed it had a normal distribution put control limits on it noticed one week of being out of control, sales manager had padded the shipments putting in warehouse, now I know why he got fired a few months previous, Took me a minute with a list of numbers to see. Now looking back I see these patterns can be used to see where you are in life make adjustments. How do you compare to your peers in wages make a change, position or education reevaluate did this put you back in control. I Have blank automated Gausian control chart just put in the data it does the work.