The Tesla network

[Neonatal RRT]

The problem with Robovan and Cybercab @Myrtonos is that they are completely inadequate as mass transportation. It takes 4 Robovans to do the job of one bus. Teslas self driving is junk and will always be junk unless they use the right technology.

A few things to note:
1. Having traveled in the UK and living in the US, there are significant differences in the attitudes, experiences, and lifestyles of the people in the US when it comes to transportation. In the UK, there are buses, trams, and trains everywhere. Here, even if you have them, we don't want to use them. People in the US, in general, would never consider mass transportation. We've had it since the turn of the century, but ridership is so low it doesn't make any economical sense to do it. People do not want to deal with waiting, time schedules, or worse, designated routes,...period. They want to stop by the store or pick up food on the way home and they simply can't do this without major inconveniences with regards to time. Furthermore, most people who work in the city, don't live in the city, but travel back and forth from the suburbs, where mass transit doesn't exist. It's a whole different living experience. Robotaxis, with 1 or 2 seats, is better fitting with the US. "Take me to this address, but stop at this market and this drive through restaurant first". We want the personal chauffeur experience. We don't want to sit next to a stinky homeless person or a bunch of rowdy teenagers on a bus or tram. A taxi is a far more popular option. In the US, a robotaxi model will take off and gain a lot of popularity, IF the price point and marketing are there. Time will tell.
2. Tesla's self-driving isn't junk. I love it. I've used it for 5 years now. It has progressed very quickly. Software version 13, released in 2024, was a complete rewrite and is amazing. Any issues pre-2024 are no longer there. Very intelligent. Are there a few little quirks? Yes, but it does catch itself and self corrects if you are relaxed and patient enough to just let it learn. I have older "hardware 3" computers in my cars. The newer "hardware 4" cars are a lot better. Software updates are coming every few weeks and the amount of compute it is learning from and the pace that it is learning, even compared to 6 months ago, it is significantly better in terms of its smoothness and decision making. Software 14 to be released within the next several weeks is supposed to be another huge leap forward. So, those videos or articles you may have viewed 6-12 months ago, is ancient history, it no longer applies. It's a different world out there. Things are advancing 10X every 6 months or so.
3. If you drove a Tesla and used their FSD software in a hardware 4 car, you wouldn't be so critical of the technology. It's pretty amazing, but you'll never know until you get your butt in a seat and actually use it. Best not to pay attention to what's been said in the media. It's highly biased and basically lies from Elon-hating op-ed writers with skewed fact collecting, misrepresentations, and false narratives. I follow this pretty closely and I know there are people out there that go out of their way to create elaborate experiments to try to confuse the FSD software into hitting objects on the road, but they've all been malicious misrepresentations. Most recently, someone using the AutoPilot software to hit a painted wall on the road trying to trick the vision system, but the in car video gave him away, as he quickly disengaged the AutoPilot and pressed the accelerator just before hitting the wall. Dan O'Dowd is another malicious actor doing similar things. All debunked, and lawsuits filed. Consumer's Reports were caught getting paid by Ford to promote their "Blue Cruise" software as better than Tesla's in their review. Most of this is industry paid propaganda, a competitor trying to discredit, or anti-Elon sentiment, and it is so blatant and ridiculous. These idiots are not fooling anyone except those with a pre-existing bias. There are over a million Teslas on the road, owners know darn well when one of these idiots are spouting a bunch of lies because they drive the car every day.

 

[MildredHubble]

Yes, we already have buses, trams and trains, but some of the services they provide are not at turn-up-and-go frequencies. I don't know about tram services but some bus services and some train services are as infrequent as once per hour, some even less frequent that than.

So logically improving the availability and frequency of buses, for example, answers your question.

Putting smaller, less good buses on the road does not.

Therefore we have solved the problem of mass transit but have prioritised cars instead, for now.

Tesla will definitely be very interested in recording your travel and monitoring people who use their fantasy product if its ever made real. You certainly won't have privacy traveling with them.

In the town where I live, buses arrive at around once every 5 minutes. Perhaps 20 people board the bus in one go and often as many get off the bus too. "Bus" is short for "Omnibus" meaning "Many into one". The more you can maximize the number of passengers in one go, the more efficient as a mode of transportation.

If instead you were transporting bottles of coca cola, you would opt for a huge truck to transport as many bottles as possible. You only need to insure, maintain, operate and fuel one. You could buy instead say 3 Ford Transit vans, but then each carries less, has to be individually insured, maintained, operated and fueled. This is why haulage companies don't buy huge fleets of small vans, they buy huge trucks as its more efficient.

Now let's imagine instead you wanted to pipe cocacola round the country. Suppose the demand was 5 litres per minute. Would it be more efficient to pour 500ml bottles down the pipe one at a time or a huge 5 litre reusable bucket?

The towns and cities with narrow roads were built that way because most people moved around on foot. The great thing about that is that you can still travel around them on foot. Most European cities I have been to have been heavily pedestrianised. The roads once used by cars are now public walkways.

In cities like London there is still heavy traffic despite all of the efforts to discourage it. The vast majority of people use the underground train system to get around more quickly. Each carriage can accommodate at least double the amount of passengers a robovan could and there's usually around 7 carriages per train. If you can put up with the crowding you can squeeze many more standing passengers into the same train.

A robovan will have to contend with traffic so using them as a kind of ersatz train won't work as other traffic will filter in and out of their convoy just like city traffic does today. Which ever way you look at it, a robovan is a rubbish train, a rubbish bus or a rubbish taxi.

It would be far better to improve the mass transport systems we have in terms of reliability, frequency and capacity than to use a less efficient alternative.

In America there has been a campaign to buy up and shut down bus stations in inner city areas, it mostly affects poorer areas. This makes buses less efficient and viable to those who could benefit from them the most.

 

[Neonatal RRT]

The reason why personal vehicles are so popular, despite its expense, is the fact that we, in the US, don't want to deal with other people, and we want to go where we want to go when we want to go. We want the chauffeur experience. Use a phone app and call for a car. Swipe a credit card and go. Furthermore, we want to be dropped off at the front door, not some predestination route and then have to walk another few blocks to our actual destination. That sucks, especially in crappy weather. Call it laziness. Call it what you will, but whatever transportation option it is, it has to be better than the personal car experience, which mass transit just isn't, and why it never has, nor ever will never take off in the US. If you can create the personal chauffeur experience at a price point that is significantly less, then this is what will be successful.

People in the US, for the most part, don't want to deal with people when they travel and commute. They hate driving in traffic. They hate planes, trains, and buses. If they could teleport themselves, they would.

Is also why personal eVTOL air taxis will be a popular option in the future, as well. You get the personal chauffeur experience, avoid all the traffic and people, you reach your destination in a fraction of the time. Again, the price point will be competitive with ground taxi, so everyday people can have access.

 

[MildredHubble]

The reason why personal vehicles are so popular, despite its expense, is the fact that we, in the US, don't want to deal with other people, and we want to go where we want to go when we want to go. We want the chauffeur experience. Use a phone app and call for a car. Swipe a credit card and go. Furthermore, we want to be dropped off at the front door, not some predestination route and then have to walk another few blocks to our actual destination. That sucks, especially in crappy weather. Call it laziness. Call it what you will, but whatever transportation option it is, it has to be better than the personal car experience, which mass transit just isn't, and why it never has, nor ever will never take off in the US. If you can create the personal chauffeur experience at a price point that is significantly less, then this is what will be successful.

People in the US, for the most part, don't want to deal with people when they travel and commute. They hate driving in traffic. They hate planes, trains, and buses. If they could teleport themselves, they would.

Is also why personal eVTOL air taxis will be a popular option in the future, as well. You get the personal chauffeur experience, avoid all the traffic and people, you reach your destination in a fraction of the time. Again, the price point will be competitive with ground taxi, so everyday people can have access.

This is what I'm getting at! Tesla, or more aptly, Musk is selling this new vaporware product as Mass Transportation. It simply isn't.

It won't happen, and if it somehow does, it will cost too much and fall apart like a cheap suit.

 

[Neonatal RRT]

This is what I'm getting at! Tesla, or more aptly, Musk is selling this new vaporware product as Mass Transportation. It simply isn't.

It won't happen, and if it somehow does, it will cost too much and fall apart like a cheap suit.

If your definition of "mass transportation" is the classic multi-person transporter like bus, train, or tram, you are correct. The Robotaxi network is not mass transportation in that sense. It is personal transport. The only way it would become "mass transportation" per se, would be in specific markets where there is "saturation", where an urban center is 80-90% Robotaxis.

The proposed Robotaxi network is better described as a "taxi without a driver". Traditional taxi companies using internal combustion engine vehicles and a driver have higher associated costs with maintenance and staff. As such, part of the cost per mile for the rider is to pay for all of that. The Robotaxis will be a simple, lightweight, stripped down, plastic/composite body, electric commuter vehicle. Very inexpensive for fleet owners, almost no maintenance, and no drivers. It's a win for companies like Uber and the like. It's also cheaper for riders. The goal is to create one of the least expensive forms of personal transport.

This all starts in June, so let's give this a few years to work out the bugs, but too much has been leading up to this. No vaporware. It's happening.

The Robovan, I think it will be a niche vehicle in specific markets. At least in US markets, I am thinking it will be limited to highly concentrated urban centers. If Tesla can make it a "luxury" experience, something "so much better" than city buses, then there may be a market. I don't know how this product is going to play out, if at all.

 

[MildredHubble]

This all starts in June, so let's give this a few years to work out the bugs, but too much has been leading up to this. No vaporware. It's happening.

Tesla will likely be bankrupt before this has a tiny chance of success. Their full automated driving is magic beans that gets flummoxed by 1950s cartoon technology. They can't just shut off the auto pilot a nano second before impact and blame the driver in this scenario. Their technology is lethal. Its a shame that people will have to learn that the hard way. It definitely is vaporware, just like the stupid Hyperloop.

I predict if they succeed in getting a single "cybercab" on the road it will be with "supervisor" drivers with "full self driving" coming "next year" forever, or at least until Tesla goes bust.

 

[Jonn]

This idea of owning a personal vehicle, for many in urban and suburban areas will be a thing of the past.

I will be an outlier if I live that long.
I take my K9 kids out daily.
A personal car is essential for me.

 

[Myrtonos]

In the town where I live, buses arrive at around once every 5 minutes. Perhaps 20 people board the bus in one go and often as many get off the bus too. "Bus" is short for "Omnibus" meaning "Many into one". The more you can maximize the number of passengers in one go, the more efficient as a mode of transportation.

Do you acknowledge that maximizing the number of passengers in each go also makes the service less frequent, except at densities where private motoring is more difficult and sheltering toddlers is also more difficult?

If instead you were transporting bottles of coca cola, you would opt for a huge truck to transport as many bottles as possible. You only need to insure, maintain, operate and fuel one. You could buy instead say 3 Ford Transit vans, but then each carries less, has to be individually insured, maintained, operated and fueled. This is why haulage companies don't buy huge fleets of small vans, they buy huge trucks as its more efficient.

Another reason haulage companies run larger vehicles (trains in some cases) is that their services are often very infrequent, frequency is not so crucial for freight transportation and even Tesla is developing a truck, the semi.

The towns and cities with narrow roads were built that way because most people moved around on foot. The great thing about that is that you can still travel around them on foot. Most European cities I have been to have been heavily pedestrianised. The roads once used by cars are now public walkways.

Yes, as I said before, they were built with nothing but walking and horse traffic in mind.

In cities like London there is still heavy traffic despite all of the efforts to discourage it. The vast majority of people use the underground train system to get around more quickly. Each carriage can accommodate at least double the amount of passengers a robovan could and there's usually around 7 carriages per train. If you can put up with the crowding you can squeeze many more standing passengers into the same train.

Now consider how densely populated London is, and how many new world cities are less densely populated, and possibly better for sheltering toddlers.

The reason why personal vehicles are so popular, despite its expense, is the fact that we, in the US, don't want to deal with other people, and we want to go where we want to go when we want to go. We want the chauffeur experience. Use a phone app and call for a car. Swipe a credit card and go. Furthermore, we want to be dropped off at the front door, not some predestination route and then have to walk another few blocks to our actual destination. That sucks, especially in crappy weather. Call it laziness. Call it what you will, but whatever transportation option it is, it has to be better than the personal car experience, which mass transit just isn't, and why it never has, nor ever will never take off in the US. If you can create the personal chauffeur experience at a price point that is significantly less, then this is what will be successful.

Are you admitting that it is not about trying to be quicker than walking but not being slower than private motoring and about protection from weather and the convenience of sitting versus walking?

The proposed Robotaxi network is better described as a "taxi without a driver". Traditional taxi companies using internal combustion engine vehicles and a driver have higher associated costs with maintenance and staff. As such, part of the cost per mile for the rider is to pay for all of that. The Robotaxis will be a simple, lightweight, stripped down, plastic/composite body, electric commuter vehicle. Very inexpensive for fleet owners, almost no maintenance, and no drivers. It's a win for companies like Uber and the like. It's also cheaper for riders. The goal is to create one of the least expensive forms of personal transport.

It is the Tesla network, not Robotaxi network, and will include other vehicles, and as I explained, it is essentially a turnkey ride-hailing service, perhaps something we have never had before.
Traditional transit companies have also had higher associated costs like you describe, and that has often meant reliance on the taxpayer to support them as well as some services that can be supported being less frequent and with larger vehicles.
Articulated buses allow each operator to move even more people at a time but are typically only deployed where standard route buses are running, say, every 6-7 minutes and are crowded. If articulated buses were deployed, say, wherever there were buses every 20 minutes on each route and crowded, there would be less reliance on subsidies and while there would possibly be more one seat rides (more room for interlining), we would realize what Elon Musk means by this:

I think public transport is painful. It sucks. Why do you want to get on something with a lot of other people, that doesn’t leave where you want it to leave, doesn’t start where you want it to start, doesn’t end where you want it to end? And it doesn’t go all the time.

We would realize why individualized transport is preferable.

The Robovan, I think it will be a niche vehicle in specific markets. At least in US markets, I am thinking it will be limited to highly concentrated urban centers. If Tesla can make it a "luxury" experience, something "so much better" than city buses, then there may be a market. I don't know how this product is going to play out, if at all.

The robovan appears to be like a sharetaxi, such as a jitney. Certainly there are cases where robovans at even the maximum frequency won't have enough capacity, and in these cases, larger transit vehicles are here to stay.

 

[Myrtonos]

Sorry, what I thought was the robotaxi is in fact the cybercab. Remember, the reasons why buses are as big as they are also why a great deal of bus services that can be supported are not at turn-up-and-go frequencies and why some are even very infrequent.

 

[velociraptor]

Mass Transit is a solved problem,

Not in the more rural areas. As to EVs, battery tech is not there yet for my own needs and it doesn't look like it will be for some time. BYD and Toyota seem to be the movers and shakers with new battery development and fast charging innovations. I'll stick with my diesel for now.

 

[velociraptor]

If they could teleport themselves, they would.

I'm down with this. The last time I rode a bus a drunk puked on me. That was in 2004. If I am ever on a bus again as a passenger (I have a bus license) you can be assured that I am at gunpoint.

 

[Myrtonos]

I am not so sure mass transit is a "solved problem" even in suburbia, especially if people living there are not so much concerned with being faster than walking as with not being slower than private motoring and with protection from weather and the convenience of sitting versus walking.

 

[Neonatal RRT]

Tesla will likely be bankrupt before this has a tiny chance of success. Their full automated driving is magic beans that gets flummoxed by 1950s cartoon technology. They can't just shut off the auto pilot a nano second before impact and blame the driver in this scenario. Their technology is lethal. Its a shame that people will have to learn that the hard way. It definitely is vaporware, just like the stupid Hyperloop.

I predict if they succeed in getting a single "cybercab" on the road it will be with "supervisor" drivers with "full self driving" coming "next year" forever, or at least until Tesla goes bust.

I get it, your cognitive bias against Elon is clouding your brain. No facts are going to change your mind. Yes, you can just shut off the AutoPilot and FSD in an instant. I have used the system for years. A tiny tap of the brake pedal or a flick of the finger on the stalk and it is off. Furthermore, you can override the system by simply pushing the accelerator and/or turning the steering wheel. FSD and AutoPilot do not lock out the driver. The in-car video was pretty clear as you watch the computer display.

The technology saves lives. This is very clear when comparing the national average accident rates per miles driven. It's roughly 10X less likely to get into an accident than a vehicle without it. Many companies are actively working on this, autonomous vehicles will someday be required, just like seatbelts and airbags. Every company will need to comply.

Whatever bee you have in your bonnet about Elon I don't know and don't care, but there are millions of people on the road using these systems and it works very well. On long road trips, it's a great asset. I love it. The media bias is that whenever a Tesla gets into an accident, it's under the false assumption that the car was in AutoPilot or FSD, which is just not the case. Just like any other vehicle, drivers need to take responsibility for their actions and not blame the car. Most of these high-profile cases, when the vehicle data logs are pulled (yes, they are "black boxed" in a sense), it's revealed that it was driver error, but the media never follows up with a retraction, correction, or apology for spreading a false narrative. Far and away more people are killed in vehicles that do not have "driver assistance" systems, but that's OK and never receives media coverage, because "it's just another auto accident" that we see every day. Remember all those politically motivated NHTSA investigations and "recalls"? Yeah, neither do I. Simple over-the-air software updates in my garage. Literally a "nothingburger".

Tesla will not go bankrupt; it's on a track to 10X within the next 5 years and perhaps 100X in the next 10. Tesla has its energy and robotics division that is on track to surpass the automotive division. They are just getting started. The FSD component is just one of many parts of their portfolio. It's Ford, GM, and Stellantis that need to get their accounting fixed, or else they will be done in 5 years. Tesla has more cash reserves than all three combined.

 

[Myrtonos]

According to some, we need more people in bigger vehicles such as buses and trains and we need high density mixed-use development. Plenty of transit that can be supported (even some where mode share is the highest) is not super frequent, the lower frequency ensuring that each operator is moving more people at a time.
Standard routes buses run at 15 minutes frequencies (let alone lower frequencies) are not really moving any more people than could smaller vehicles (like robovans) run more frequently.
Furthermore, the densities that make super frequent services with larger vehicles economical come at the expense of privacy and are not so good for sheltering toddlers.

 

[MildredHubble]

I get it, your cognitive bias against Elon is clouding your brain

No, its my critical thinking that let's me see how ridiculous these silly imaginary Tesla products are.

I checked into it yesterday to make sure I hadn't missed anything and Forbes has confirmed that production hasn't even started on the so called cybercab.

Mass transit is a solved problem, its just not being implemented well because of capitalist attitudes. We have solved the problem of providing water, gas and electricity in domestic settings yet there are areas of the world the do not have them. That simply means that despite solving the problem the solution hasn't been utilized everywhere it could be due to the returns not being high enough for investors.

Getting broadcast TV is a solved problem, but I can't really get it due to a fault with our satellite dish. Just because I haven't fixed it yet doesn't mean that over the air broadcasts don't existand aren't a solved problem.

High speed internet is a solved problem, it was a solved problem where I used to live, yet our street could only get slow internet because the ISP that provided the high speed internet didn't want to go to the expense of installing cables close to a cliff edge. So again we have a solved problem but the solution wasn't implemented because it wasn't worth the investment to serve 7-8 houses.

A small bus like the imaginary Robovan has been examined and it has been determined that it can at most accommodate 14-16 passengers. That is simply not by any stretch of the imagination a "mass transit" solution, yet Tesla promotes it as one. It is an inadequate boutique bus. You would need around 4 robovans to do the job of one bus. They occupy more space on the road and will need more space for people to board them.

We have solved the problem of mass transport with busses, trains, trams, etc. They solve the problem as they maximize the number of people that can utilize them in one go. The more you can get done in one motion the more efficiently you are getting things done.

Don't conflate Teslas vaporware personal and group limousine service with mass transport. It simply does not fit the definition.

 

[velociraptor]

I get it, your cognitive bias against Elon is clouding your brain.

The guy is a racist and his trademark is consistently cruel behaviour towards others. You're faulting people for not wanting to financially prop up someone like that? Give your head a shake.

 

[Neonatal RRT]

As I suggested earlier: "If your definition of "mass transportation" is the classic multi-person transporter like bus, train, or tram, you are correct. The Robotaxi network is not mass transportation in that sense. It is personal transport. The only way it would become "mass transportation" per se, would be in specific markets where there is "saturation", where an urban center is 80-90% Robotaxis."

Tesla will begin its pilot autonomous, unsupervised, paid ride-hailing service in June, 2025 in Austin, TX. Think Waymo and Cruze. They will NOT use the Cybercab vehicles, but rather production Tesla vehicles that are already being used in a current supervised mode, using FSD-beta. Production of the Cybercab will begin in low volume mid-2025, with full volume production slated for early 2026. In other words, they had no plans on using the Cybercab for the pilot program.

So, the strategy here, using preexisting regulatory approval and vehicles, start small, work out the bugs, introduce low-volume production of the low cost Cybercabs, then finally high-volume production in 2026.

 

[Neonatal RRT]

The guy is a racist and his trademark is consistently cruel behaviour towards others. You're faulting people for not wanting to financially prop up someone like that? Give your head a shake.

I have seen zero evidence that he is a racist or a Nazi. Zero. Please, go ahead and not support him. That's your prerogative.

 

[velociraptor]

I have seen zero evidence that he is a racist or a Nazi.

I guess if I ignore him making Nazi salutes on live television and using X to amplify junk science about how certain minorities are less intelligent than others, you're absolutely right. My mistake.