I just came through hurricane Helene

[WhitewaterWoman]

Yup, just like @WhitewaterWoman , l am thinking it will cover a good section. We were told to evacuate from zones A-E, which is pretty much everyone. My neighbor asked where are we suppose to go? My partner seems depressed, l hope he survives this hurricane.

Whatever you need to do, do it today.

The best way to evacuate is to get on a plane today and fly to some place way outside the storm, like Montana for example. Stay in a motel and come back when it’s over.

Some people move into motels which have higher floors to avoid flooding.

I have to put up the plywood, find the screws, and I just remembered my gas cans are empty. I’ll do that first.

Then if I have time, bring some of of canoes and orchids into the house.

 

[Mary Terry]

If there is a "rain sucking" effect on the USA, I've never noticed. But I can take an educated guess here.

I looked at Australia cyclone paths. Your cyclones tend to form parallel to your continent's coastline before making landfall. So it makes sense that they "suck" in other rain systems.

Almost all of our hurricane activity takes place way out in the ocean, away from any land, and then it hits the continent, bam. There's very little to suck up from the continental USA.

Note that Florida is a very wet state in general. Thunderstorms and rains are an almost daily occurrence. And I don't know what it is with the soil or what, but the couple of hurricanes I've been through, the water was gone in a matter of hours. And they have a very very good system for repairing damage quickly and getting lights back on.

Don't get me wrong - Milton will be horrible - it is just that FL is best positioned of any state to do so.

It is the other states that suffer a lot more, like TN and NC are taking the brunt of suffering from Helene.

Florida and the southern states that have hurricanes (AL, GA, MS, LA, TX) are all relatively flat terrain with little variation in topography, so water runs off, into rivers, creeks and back to the ocean. We're also very experienced with these monster storms, and FEMA and our state emergency management entities are quick to respond (ignore the politician who is currently falsely claiming that FEMA didn't respond to Helene). But the mountainous states like Tennessee and North Carolina are not well equipped for the amount of rainwater that will accumulate in the valleys between the mountains. It's not the wind in those states - it's the water - that wipes out everything. Vermont had terrible flooding a couple of years ago, just from rainstorms.

Everyone, please evacuate early if you need to, and stay safe. Heading west, toward Georgia or Alabama, may be your best route since this storm looks like it's going up east coast again.

 

[Mary Terry]

Thank you, that was helpful.


You also have very deep ocean right up to your coast which makes you more prone to tidal surges and tsunamis. Australia is surrounded by a couple of hundred kilometres wide continental shelf. Shallow seas don't support huge waves, but it also means oceans get more warmed by the sun and more cyclones form there. That continental shelf shows in google maps.

View attachment 136050

And after looking at the US in the same way I see you have just as wide a shelf, another thing I was taught in school that is wrong.


This is also true for the top end of Australia. I've seen it rain 8 inches in an hour and another hour after that there's hardly any puddles left. The water table actually comes up to ground level in a good year though, and I've seen a few idiots make the terrible mistake of draining their in-ground pool to clean it in the wet season, the pool floats up out of the ground and the hole it left behind collapses.

Darwin is less than 12 degrees from the equator. I just did a bit of map checking of my own, Miami is 27 degrees from the equator which puts it about on par with Brisbane. Sub tropical, gets a wet season but also gets a mild winter. Very few of our cyclones go down that far south, they mostly run east west across the top of the country.

Actually, I understand that shallow ocean is more at risk for storm surge than deep ocean. The Gulf of Mexico is shallow compared with the east and west coasts of the US so storm surges are powerful down here. The worst is when the surge occurs during high tide when the water level is already high. That's what happened during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 where portions of the Mississippi coast had up to 40 feet of storm surge in low lying areas. Imagine looking out your window and seeing the tide rising 40 feet around you.

 

[Outdated]

The worst is when the surge occurs during high tide when the water level is already high.

I think a big part of that might be to do with the shape of that gulf too, it's almost a fully enclosed circle. When water is forced in to there, or if it's already a high tide and that water isn't allowed to escape, it has nowhere to go except over low lying land. It's almost half the size of the mediteranean, that's a lot of water.

We don't have an equivalent of that in Australia. There's places that normally get 40 foot tides but I've never seen that much in a storm surge.

 

[Mary Terry]

I think a big part of that might be to do with the shape of that gulf too, it's almost a fully enclosed circle. When water is forced in to there, or if it's already a high tide and that water isn't allowed to escape, it has nowhere to go except over low lying land. It's almost half the size of the mediteranean, that's a lot of water.

We don't have an equivalent of that in Australia. There's places that normally get 40 foot tides but I've never seen that much in a storm surge.

View attachment 136059

The shallow Gulf waters get really heated up, too, which generates powerful storms. The warm water Gulf Stream flows all the way north, as part of the Atlantic Ocean, to the Scandinavian countries.

 

[Mary Terry]

Hurricane Milton is now a category 5. I'm praying for everyone in harm's way. This is going to be very bad for people who are unprepared for it.

 

[WhitewaterWoman]

I spent all day preparing. Went into town to buy screws. Filled up all my gas cans. Hauled the plywood out of the shed and hauled it to the house.

Now, where is that ladder? Found the ladder.

Find the drill. It is not drilling properly. Takes me 15-20 minutes to figure out I had the setting on ‘unscrew” instead of “screw. BTW, this is not the first time I have spent 20 minutes with the. Drill set backwards.

Etc.

Main windows are covered with plywood. Some orchids brought in.

More work for tomorrow still to do.

 

[Outdated]

The shallow Gulf waters get really heated up, too, which generates powerful storms. The warm water Gulf Stream flows all the way north, as part of the Atlantic Ocean, to the Scandinavian countries.

That's a huge difference to Australia too, you have a warm ocean stream running up your east coast, we have a cold ocean stream running up ours, straight from Antarctica, that probably plays a role in why so many of our cyclones don't come further south.

 

[Judge]

Milton looking pretty grim presently as a cat 5 hurricane off the Yucatan Peninsula.

Stay safe...leave the area if necessary.

 

[jsilver256]

That's a huge difference to Australia too, you have a warm ocean stream running up your east coast, we have a cold ocean stream running up ours, straight from Antarctica, that probably plays a role in why so many of our cyclones don't come further south.

Also, it is unusual that the western currents bend down south enough that it is possible for a hurricane to take this path (west to east across the Gulf). The last hurricane that formed this way was Hurricane Earl in 1998. I am guessing this is what is stymieing the models - they don't have enough data on hurricanes of this nature and hence could not have predicted this hurricane.

Usually hurricanes go from east to west. Those that hit east of Florida, tend to do so by coming from the southeast.

Winds are now 180mph and still strengthening. My guess is it'll have a good chance of becoming the strongest ever Atlantic hurricane. Hopefully the wind shear comes in strong and shreds it before landfall.

My parents are in the direct path with a waterfront house and refuse to evacuate.

 

[FayetheAspie]

@jsilver256 I hope that your parents will be ok.

 

[jsilver256]

@jsilver256 I hope that your parents will be ok.

It is stubbornness. Likely no small credit to undiagnosed ASD. I went through this with Ian.

 

[Outdated]

Also, it is unusual that the western currents bend down south enough that it is possible for a hurricane to take this path (west to east across the Gulf).

This could be happening more often in the future too, with global warming. Part of the predictions are that with the massive ice melt we've been having in recent decades the salinity of the oceans is dropping slightly and that affects the heat exchange that creates the currents.

Weather prediction is no longer as sure as it used to be, the Australian Bureau of Met has got almost everything wrong in their long term predictions the last few years.

 

[FilterFreq]

I hope everyone stays safe. I'm on the east side of the state, but still in the direct line of fire. This might be a pretty bad one

 

[Judge]

I hope everyone stays safe. I'm on the east side of the state, but still in the direct line of fire. This might be a pretty bad one

Let's hope it dissipates substantially by the time it hits the west coast of Florida.

 

[Forest Cat]

Best of luck to everyone in the storm areas.

 

[SusanLR]

The eye is predicted to hit exactly where I live.
No mandatory evacuations for my neighborhood though. I'm on the ridge of Pinellas.
Highest area in the county. Still surrounded by water on both sides- the gulf and Tampa Bay.
We have a good concrete block house. I think it will stand up to it. Maybe not the pool enclosure and who knows about the roof. Just hope it doesn't flood to the inside of the house.

Special needs shelters are full and can't guarantee power except for oxygen generators. Highways leading out of the area have been bumper to bumper and very slow moving all day.
Guess I'm as safe here as in a shelter. Still very worried. Visions of another Katrina.
Will try to find gas, more ice and look for more non-perishable food items today.
Doubtful though unless there are shipments arriving tonight to stores and the gas stations.

@Aspychata I know the feeling...where do you go?
Hoping for the best to others in the area. Stay safe as possible.

 

[Mary Terry]

This hurricane is so large and strong that Florida likely will experience hurricane strength winds on both the west and east coasts at the same time.

 

[Mary Terry]

Just a suggestion for those who may get slammed by water and wind: take a hatchet or axe with you in the house in case you get trapped so you can hack your way out if you need to.

 

[Kitsuna]

Stay safe, everyone! I’ve heard it’s possibly going to downgrade before landfall so hoping for the best for yall!